基于情景信息扩散模型的雾霾社会风险演化仿真研究

雾霾灾害不仅危害公众健康,且风险信息的传播会引发社会次级风险。为了研究社会风险信息的扩散演化趋势,本文构建了雾霾社会风险的情景信息扩散模型。以中国2013年雾霾灾害为例,将风险信息扩散过程分为爆发期、扩散期和稳定期,分析了不同参数条件下的信息扩散规律。结果表明,政府应在风险信息爆发期和扩散期增大官方渠道信息的覆盖范围,尤其在爆发期需对自由渠道发布的信息进行严格监管,在社会风险扩大之前制定应对策略。     

环境保护工作新思路研究

中国环境保护工作的新形势和公益性属性为环境保护工作中实施社会治理提供了现实需求和理论基础.本文从社会治理的内涵入手,结合中国环境保护工作的形势和环境保护工作的公益属性分析,探讨了在环境保护工作中推进社会治理的可行性;从环境影响评价中公众参与存在的问题出发,分析了中国环境保护社会治理当前存在的问题;再此基础上,从社会治理制度、参与渠道等方面提出了以社会治理思路推进中国环境保护工作的思路.     

Social media and disasters: a functional framework for social media use in disaster planning,response, and research

A comprehensive review of online, official, and scientific literature was carried out in 2012–13 to develop a framework of disaster social media. This framework can be used to facilitate the creation of disaster social media tools, the formulation of disaster social media implementation processes, and the scientific study of disaster social media effects. Disaster social media users in the framework include communities, government, individuals, organisations, and media outlets. Fifteen distinct disaster social media uses were identified, ranging from preparing and receiving disaster preparedness information and warnings and signalling and detecting disasters prior to an event to (re)connecting community members following a disaster. The framework illustrates that a variety of entities may utilise and produce disaster social media content. Consequently, disaster social media use can be conceptualised as occurring at a number of levels, even within the same disaster. Suggestions are provided on how the proposed framework can inform future disaster social media development and research.     

分光光度法中不同光程长度比色皿间关系验证

参照《纳氏试剂分光光度法》的方法原理,用分光光度计对3种光程长度比色皿分别进行比色,探讨不同光程长度比色皿间关系。     

基于遥感监测的黄海绿潮漂移路径及分布面积特征分析

本文利用2008～2012年的多源卫星遥感序列图像,动态监测各年绿潮发生的漂移路径、影响海域面积,得到各年绿潮漂移趋势、分布面积和最大分布面积出现时间。根据监测结果,划分出影响绿潮漂移路径的关键区域,并分析了2008、2009和2010年关键区域内各年绿潮漂移方向和面积变化情况。     

我国城镇居民环保事务参与的性别差异分析

从行为参与、管理参与和环境意识三个方面阐述了当前环保事务参与中存在的性别差异问题；从社会结构的视角分析了性别化对环保参与现状的影响。针对存在的问题和制约因素，从社会系统、社会资源和环境意识三个方面提出发展建议。     

自然灾害社会脆弱性评估研究——以上海市为例

基于投影寻踪聚类模型(PPC),结合基于实数编码的加速遗传算法(RAGA),对上海市进行了自然灾害社会脆弱性评估的尝试。结果表明:①灾害社会脆弱性最高的为崇明县,其次为宝山区和金山区;②灾害社会脆弱性最低的是黄埔区,其次是徐汇区和静安区;③总体而言,灾害脆弱性较低的地区集中于上海城市中心区,而城市边缘区的社会脆弱性一般较高。     

国产Q345钢在不同热-力路径下的材料性能对比和材料模型应用

为评估和分析钢结构的耐火性能,以我国10个钢厂生产的Q345钢的424次恒载升温试验和152次恒温加载试验结果为依据,对钢材强度和应变以及不同的热-力作用路径下的力学性能进行对比研究。结果表明,在所有热-力作用路径下,恒载升温试验的强度最小,应变最大,临界温度最低;恒温加载试验的强度最大,应变最小,临界温度最高。随温度升高,热-力作用路径对钢材的力学性能影响增大:在450℃以下影响较小,在500℃以上时影响显著。如果规范采用恒温加载试验强度,是不可靠的。恒载升温条件下的ε-T-k材料模型和恒温加载条件下的ε-k-T材料模型均不能单独用于超静定钢结构的性能分析。超静定钢结构的性能分析可把火灾过程离散为若干时段,把每个时段分解为两个独立的应变-温度过程和应变-应力过程,分别应用恒载升温条件下的ε-T-k和恒温加载条件下的ε-k-T材料模型进行分析,然后迭加计算以得出最后的应变。     

区域分工与合作视角下区域产业同构问题及优化路径

区域间产业结构的同构与异构取决于在市场调节和宏观调控中生产要素的结构与流动特征,其特征量的相似性导致产业结构的同构,产业同构在一定时空条件下具有合意性。随着区域经济一体化进程的加快,其非合意性愈显突出。区域产业同构优化的本质动力在于生产要素结构及其流动特征量的变化,通过不同层级区域产业规划战略和区域间经济合作实现生产要素的合理组合与流动,以产业集群化之路实现区域产业结构的高级化,使区域产业结构朝着优化、持续方向发展。     

Understanding the Lessons and Limitations of Conservation and Development

Abstract: The lack of concrete instances in which conservation and development have been successfully merged has strengthened arguments for strict exclusionist conservation policies. Research has focused more on social cooperation and conflict of different management regimes and less on how these factors actually affect the natural environments they seek to conserve. Consequently, it is still unknown which strategies yield better conservation outcomes? We conducted a meta‐analysis of 116 published case studies on common resource management regimes from Africa, south and central America, and southern and Southeast Asia. Using ranked sociodemographic, political, and ecological data, we analyzed the effect of land tenure, population size, social heterogeneity, as well as internally devised resource‐management rules and regulations (institutions) on conservation outcome. Although land tenure, population size, and social heterogeneity did not significantly affect conservation outcome, institutions were positively associated with better conservation outcomes. There was also a significant interaction effect between population size and institutions, which implies complex relationships between population size and conservation outcome. Our results suggest that communities managing a common resource can play a significant role in conservation and that institutions lead to management regimes with lower environmental impacts.